If the GOP fell apart, there would be an extraordinarily large void on the right side of the political spectrum in this country. If I were to begin a new Conservative Party in this country it would be modeled after the creation of the Republican Party following the collapse of the Whig Party and the current British Conservative Party. The American version of the Conservative Party would have a similar base and attempt to attract the same voters as the GOP, but it would be more moderate (as the GOP has lost a lot of voters who tend to be socially moderate, while remaining fiscally conservative), ethnically and socially inclusive (I've written this in other posts, but the nation is slowly creeping toward a society that is no longer dominated by whites), and forward thinking (like their British counterparts who are led by David Cameron who is energetic and, as Time Magazine columnist Catherine Mayer describes him, posh, not necessarily a term associated with the GOP).
Specifically the American Conservative Party would do what according to Aldrich, its GOP counterparts were able to do when the Whig Party was shredding itself: "the Republican party had to expand its appeal from its antislavery position to a broader basis," (Aldrich 155). A new conservative party needs to expand its appeal from the roots of moderate homeowners who don't want their taxes increased and the national defense crowd and limit the influence of what James Carville described as the "GGG Party (More god, more guns, less gays)." A successful 21st century conservative party must do what they can to build on the other two parts of the GOP and attempt to mute the GGG's influence.
Specifically the American Conservative Party would do what according to Aldrich, its GOP counterparts were able to do when the Whig Party was shredding itself: "the Republican party had to expand its appeal from its antislavery position to a broader basis," (Aldrich 155). A new conservative party needs to expand its appeal from the roots of moderate homeowners who don't want their taxes increased and the national defense crowd and limit the influence of what James Carville described as the "GGG Party (More god, more guns, less gays)." A successful 21st century conservative party must do what they can to build on the other two parts of the GOP and attempt to mute the GGG's influence.
To get here, the Conservative Party needs to first reconcile some of the issues that the GOP is currently grappling with. Simply they need to cede the following to the Democrats: civil unions/gay marriage, stem cell research, climate change, immigration reform, and health care reform. By foregoing fighting over gay marriage and stem cell research, the Conservative Party would recognize the moderate shift of the electorate toward the middle on certain social issues. In addition the Conservative Party platform would acknowledge the striking damage done to the climate through the emission of greenhouse gases. As a result, they would fall in line with the rest of the country and vociferously support legislation that leads to the reduction of greenhouse gases and other pollutants. The GOP stance on immigration reform during the 2005 debate was far from inclusive. Conservatives need to adopt a softer approach or they risk alienating the fastest growing voting bloc in the electorate. Similarly health care reform is an issue that also appears to have gained support recently. Just as the GOP has accepted and acknowledged the success of Social Security as a social program, the Conservative Party would recognize the positives surrounding some sort of universal health care program.
Beyond those five issues which the GOP appears to have taken the wrong track or constructed irrational and scattered viewpoints, the Conservatives would adopt the GOP's advocation for limited government intervention in business and other parts of the economy, their pro-gun stance, and their pro-life beliefs. However, with each, particularly the pro-gun and pro-life stances, the platform would read more pragmatically and be accepting of those who happen to not stand uniformly behind the platform.
Tied to the switch in tone is a new generation of leadership. Fire-brandish members of Congress such as Michelle Bachman and Spencer Bachus would be allowed in the party, but would not be highly visible. Instead the Conservative Party would highlight, younger, moderate leaders who are not only respected by the GOP base (which will eventually be necessary if the American Conservative Party is to survive), but also have strong working relationships with the middle of the electorate. Potential leaders would be similar to what, according to Aldrich, the Republicans did when the Whigs were slowly dissipating (147-148). The party would begin to gain traction at the local, state, and Congressional levels. Then eventually as they moved ahead and attracted conservative voters, the Republican Party would begin to lose it influence and grip on the ideological right. As the GOP began to fall apart, older party leaders would simply retire or join the Conservative Party. But they would likely take a back seat to some younger, more innovative members of Congress or other party members.
The Conservative Party cannot limit itself to a strict region anymore. The country is shrinking as a result of urban sprawl and advances in technology. However the party must be born somewhere other than the Deep South. If the GOP survives at all, and maintains their current ideology, they will remain strong in the Deep South. Recently the increasingly diverse West has been flirting with Democrats (e.g. elections of Ken Salazar and the Udalls to the Senate, not to mention President Obama's gains made in Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada). If the party is born in the West they will have popularity and recognition in the newest round of battleground states. Then when the GOP collapses the South will fall into line even if they are not necessarily satisfied with the Conservative Party's willingness to be more socially inclusive (social issues, not racial issues).
As the GOP shrinks, the Conservative Party would begin to fill the void for conservative voters. Because of the magnitude of the current parties, the Conservative Party would need to be patient in its development, but once it began to spread its message, the vacuum will be filled quickly. The time the GOP spends in decline will likely take about 10 years and the Conservative Party will slowly begin to build a national infrastructure by attracting party activists who hold conservative viewpoints, but are dissatisfied with the direction of the GOP. Then once the GOP collapses the Conservatives will rapidly ascend (within 1-2 election cycles) to national prominence. This will happen much quicker than during the period of Jackson when the Democrats went unchallenged for a few election cycles.
The Conservative Party cannot limit itself to a strict region anymore. The country is shrinking as a result of urban sprawl and advances in technology. However the party must be born somewhere other than the Deep South. If the GOP survives at all, and maintains their current ideology, they will remain strong in the Deep South. Recently the increasingly diverse West has been flirting with Democrats (e.g. elections of Ken Salazar and the Udalls to the Senate, not to mention President Obama's gains made in Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada). If the party is born in the West they will have popularity and recognition in the newest round of battleground states. Then when the GOP collapses the South will fall into line even if they are not necessarily satisfied with the Conservative Party's willingness to be more socially inclusive (social issues, not racial issues).
As the GOP shrinks, the Conservative Party would begin to fill the void for conservative voters. Because of the magnitude of the current parties, the Conservative Party would need to be patient in its development, but once it began to spread its message, the vacuum will be filled quickly. The time the GOP spends in decline will likely take about 10 years and the Conservative Party will slowly begin to build a national infrastructure by attracting party activists who hold conservative viewpoints, but are dissatisfied with the direction of the GOP. Then once the GOP collapses the Conservatives will rapidly ascend (within 1-2 election cycles) to national prominence. This will happen much quicker than during the period of Jackson when the Democrats went unchallenged for a few election cycles.
Hi Eric,
ReplyDeleteIn response to your question left on my blog:
I do think the strategy used by the White House may be a little risky, but their goal is most likely to show the American people that the Democrats are working hard for them and trying to get the Republicans on board as well.
I think if the Republicans were in the White House, there would probably be a similar situation going on, just with the roles reversed. Until the economy is better, both parties may try to simply point fingers. Which is unfortunate, they should all be working hard regardless of party affiliation to help the American people though the economic "crisis" we are all experiencing.
This is a well thought out plan. I especially like the comparison to the UK Conservatives... do you think you could name an American equivilant to David Cameron?
ReplyDelete